The Legacy of the Space Shuttle RIP
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Perhaps one day (if not already recognized by some) we will see that space is far more about human nature than about space. A case in point (THE case in point, I’m sad to say — though I’d rather not detail this. But if we want to avoid a repetition, we need to face reality here)…
The over-selling of the shuttle program may be the single most crippling space endeavor — ever.
I’m open to feedback on any points that follow, and ready to stand corrected if shown evidence to the contrary (my way of saying that I’m not interested in antagonizing anyone).
Besides crowding out expendable launch vehicles (ELV), right from the start we were launching only a handful of shuttle missions each year compared to the 96 flights ‘sold’ for budgeting purposes (the number of empty pages in the original manifest book first distributed in the late 1970s was breathtaking).
Right from the beginning efforts at re-usability actually increased costs due to extensive post-flight overhauls. So flying added shuttle missions was not going to reduce costs by much (and likely not at all).
We pushed the pace a bit anyway in order to prove the notion of ‘routine access to space’ — and lost one shuttle for the effort in 1986.
Then, with even fewer launches per year, the underlying overhead and higher-than-expect turnaround expense drove per mission costs -farther- through the roof (and long since onto separate budget and pricing line items masking this from specific launch-related costs).
Real cost per kg to LEO grew to at least three times that of ELV systems (and probably more). And yet institutional entrenchment blocked talk of a replacement system for years.
Launch failures stalled the program, setting critical missions back years at a time, thereby increasing costs on the payload side as well. And finally, in a mad dash to the finish line — because we needed a ‘shuttle to somewhere’ — we built the (you know what, that’s still in search of its own mission).
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I’m not about to say that all of this was a bad idea, nor claim that it prevented anything useful from happening in space. It’s just a case in point where selling any big idea (good or not so good) can take on a life of its own — sometimes lasting 30 years before we realize how this may have worked out a whole lot better with more in the way of upfront consideration and ongoing intellectual honesty.
One way or another, in this case, the crippling effects will be felt for years to come.
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